Yesterday the Indianapolis Colts decided to sever their 14 year relationship with quarterback Peyton. The move did not come as a big surprise what with them owing him 28 million if he was still on the roster the following day and not really knowing how he was coming in his recovery despite the grainy footage of him making what appear to be a series of nice looking throws at Duke last week. The question now on everyone's mind is where will Peyton go. I am interested in this as well and will give some thoughts on that maybe tomorrow but for now I want to evaluate the Colts choice to let him go.
I have been paying quite a bit of attention to this story on ESPN over the past several months for several months for multiple reasons. My wife is from Tennessee and Peyton is her all time favorite athlete so by some sort of osmosis I have taken an interest in him throughout his career, I have always fancied myself as a wannabe GM so I find the situation very interesting as to what decision I would make if directing a team, and then finally it's just a huge story for any sports junkie to follow.
The Colts have the number one overall pick in the coming draft and will be all accounts use that pick to take QB Andrew Luck from Stanford who is being hailed as the best prospect in the past 20 years. On the surface the obvious view of this is that you draft Luck as the heir apparent to Peyton. In listening to all of the talking heads on ESPN there was no other option but to draft Luck and let Peyton go regardless of where Peyton was at with his recovery.
I happen to have a different view on this situation. The common belief is that the Colts are a terrible team, which is understandable based on the teams 2-14 record last season. But this same team before this season was 10-6 and coming off a long stretch of consecutive playoff appearances and 10+ win seasons. The swing in record in this one season clearly demonstrates the greatness of Peyton. Maybe the Colts would have fallen off this year and only gone 8-8 even with Peyton as the team does has some obvious holes. But what this season shows is with Peyton they would have always had a fighting chance no matter the other deficiencies on the team.
Now I am going to make a leap and say that an NFL team has two primary goals; win championships and be profitable. Let's assume that with the NFL being one of the businesses that is closest to the US Mint when it comes to the ability to make money that the issue with being profitable is not going to be much of an issue no matter what decision the Colts would have made. So let's take a closer look at the prospect of winning as many games as possible with the goal of that leading to championships.
The Colts were faced with two primary options: keep Peyton while drafting Luck and grooming him for the future or let Peyton go and rebuild around Luck. Had the Colts gone with option one they most likely would have struggled to achieve that 8-8 record even with Peyton at full strength. The team has holes and they would have used the top overall pick on a player not on the field contributing to making that record better. They would have relied on their picks in later rounds to provide help while maybe adding a few free agents to the mix. Assuming an 8-8 record in 2012 they would have been back to drafting in the middle of the first round with a realistic goal of getting back to 10-6, making the playoffs but still probably having too many issues to being a legit title contender. I do not think this approach would have been in the Colts best long term interest.
Let's explore how option two might play out now. Luck will be drafted one overall and be the new face of the franchise. Peyton has been released instead of traded so they get nothing back from his leaving. The franchise has gone into full rebuilding mode and will likely jettison several other veteran free agents who were key players in the teams recent success. They will choose to rebuild through the draft with the top pick in each round. This will be a bad team in 2012, maybe not 2-14, but six wins seems like the ceiling even if Luck delivers a solid rookie season. The key with this approach is Luck's long term prospects. Again, he is touted as the best prospect of the past 20 years, a true can't miss player. That may be, but that being said, how good does that mean he will be? Number one overall picks even with all of their talent are about a 50/50 proposition form NFL success and top QB picks have a very mixed track record. If Luck turns out to be a top 10 NFL quarterback you would have to say he was a good player. Can he be a top 5 NFL quarterback? Maybe, but that is a pretty tough group to crack. Now for the question that I haven't heard been asked, will he be as good as Peyton, the quarterback you already had? I have to assume the answer to this will be no and most likely it won't even be close. Peyton is arguably a top five QB of all time. The odds of Luck being a top five all time QB are hugely stacked against him. Not because of anything wrong with Luck but it is just simple math to say that a player who has never thrown a pass in the league will probably not end up in the discussion with Brady, Montana, Favre, Unitas, Elway, Marino, and, oh yeah, Peyton Manning, due to a variety of reasons including health, supporting talent not to mention how well he can grasp the speed and complexity of the pro game. By 2014 with several years of good draft picks and smart free agent moves this team can be in the position to be a contender again but only if Luck lives up to the hype.
The NFL is a very perverse business. There is so much excitement surrounding the potential of young players as they come through the draft that they get projected into being so much more than what they will likely become and stranger, they become more valued than an existing player who is a proven solid commodity. Within just a few short years this same player is worth pennies on the dollar compared to the next young thing coming out of college. A top 10 overall pick can provide very good production for four years and then be traded for a third round pick just so the team can replace the proven good player with a 21 year old who has never played a down. This is the mentality of a six year old. Just show me the shiny new toy and I will forget all about old reliable which has been there for the past several years.
Now let's examine a third possibility, one that was to crazy to ever consider by reasonable people but in my opinion should have been what the Colts did. This approach relies on a very big assumption and that is that Peyton comes back healthy. the driver to make this decision this past week was the 28 million Peyton had coming to him. Could the Colts not have gone to Peyton and said, "Hey look, we want to keep you but it is pretty tough to hand over 28 million when we don't don't know if you will be fairly healthy. How about we try this. Let's reduce the amount of the bonus and push it back to just prior to the draft. If you are healthy by then we'll increase your base pay for the year. That way we give ourselves more time for this thing to heal."
Think about it. Peyton doesn't really risk anything in this scenario because he isn't going to get the same kind of money now that Colts were willing to give him. Post injury he will still get paid but not like before. he is 36 years old and coming off four neck surgeries. Yes, he is one of the all time greats and if healthy is still one of the best five QB's in the league today. But because of age and injuries he will see diminished financial offerings now that he is on the market. I can see someone giving him maybe $15 million a year for three years but there will be no $28 million bonus like he slated to get.
Ok, so maybe it could have worked out for Peyton to stay and the Colts could have been protected financially. But what does that do for the Colts' future on the field? How do they really get any better and how long can you keep Luck on the bench? That's the key to this approach, you don't keep Luck. Right now teams are tripping over themselves trying to put together a package to move up to the two spot and grab RG3. Just think of the offerings if Luck were available at the top of the draft. The Colts could load up on draft picks and/or quality players and immediately fill a number of the holes they have and with Peyton at the helm be right back in position to be a contending team for the next three years.
But what about the great Andrew Luck? Can you possibly pass on him? Look at the points I mentioned above. Will he be as good as Peyton? I only give that a 1% chance. Also, while everyone talks about locking up a player for 10 years how often does that actually happen? Almost never. Why? Because the NFL is a brutal business and as I said earlier top picks are routinely tossed aside just a couple of years into their career for the next new prospect. The bottom line is that if they were to have stuck with Peyton they would have had a three year window to find another replacement or sign another free agent veteran when Peyton hangs it up on his own terms.
This would have been the best option to put the Colts in a psoition to win titles. Can anyone realistically say that with the direction the Colts have chosen they will be in position to be a contending team within the next three years? The answer is clearly no. I would gladly take my chances for the next three years with Peyton and then roll the dice with what to do after that. Besides we all know how much can change in the NFL in that amount of time.
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